Prototype · North America

🇺🇸 United States — Energy

Main source: Natural Gas · Net position: Net Exporter · Renewable: 23% · Security: Low · Transition: Improving

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Live Energy & Emissions DataWorld Bank · IMF · OECD
GDP Growth
+2.1%
2028 · imf
Population
341.8M
2025 · world_bank
Renewable Share
20.3%
2021 · world_bank
Prototype profile
Security: LowTransition: Improving

Energy Brief

AI-Assisted Energy Assessment — separated from verified data.

The U.S. is the largest combined oil and gas producer and a growing LNG exporter. The grid is undergoing rapid renewable additions while gas remains the dominant power source. Main pressures are grid build-out, transmission permitting and weather-driven reliability events. Transition incentives accelerate clean capex.

Confidence: High (82) · Generated 2025-06-28
Evidence: Mock production data; Grid investment trends · Uncertainty: Policy continuity

Energy Balance

Total production
2,310 Mtoe
Total consumption
2,240 Mtoe
Energy imports
260 Mtoe
Energy exports
330 Mtoe
Net position
Net Exporter
Energy intensity
4.6 MJ/$ GDP
Use per capita
6.7 toe
Demand growth
+1.0% YoY
Production vs consumption — mock historical

Energy Mix

SourceCurrentPreviousΔ (pp)CompaniesRegionsRisk
Natural Gas34%33%+1EQT, ExxonMobilAppalachia, PermianPipeline takeaway
Oil36%36%0ExxonMobil, ChevronPermian, GulfOPEC+ price swings
Coal11%13%-2PeabodyWyomingRetirements
Nuclear8%8%0ConstellationSouth-EastLicense renewals
Hydroelectric3%3%0BPAPacific NWDrought
Solar4%3%+1NextEraTX, CATrade policy
Wind3%3%0NextEraTX, IAPermitting
Biomass1%1%0VariousSoutheastFeedstock
Other Renewables0%0%0Various—Early stage
Oil Profile
Production
13.1 Mb/d
Consumption
20.1 Mb/d
Imports
6.4 Mb/d
Exports
4.5 Mb/d
Refining capacity
18.4 Mb/d
Strategic reserve
365 Mbbl
Main basins
Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford
Main companies
ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips
Fiscal importance
Moderate (royalties)
Currency sensitivity
Low
Natural Gas Profile
Production
1,030 bcm
Consumption
880 bcm
Imports
70 bcm
Exports
220 bcm
LNG capacity
115 mtpa
Pipeline dependence
Low (domestic)
Storage
120 bcm working
Main suppliers
Domestic
Companies
EQT, Cheniere, Sempra
Price exposure
Henry Hub
Coal Profile
Production
520 Mt
Consumption
440 Mt
Import dependence
Low
Power share
16%
Industrial use
Steel, cement
Main regions
Wyoming, Appalachia
Companies
Peabody, Arch
Transition pressure
High
Employment
~40k miners
Electricity System
Generation capacity
1,300 GW
Demand
4,200 TWh
Peak demand
760 GW
Reserve margin
17%
Reliability
Moderate
Renewable generation
23%
Industrial price
$86/MWh
Household price
$155/MWh
Imports/Exports
70 TWh net
Constraint
Transmission permitting
Renewable Energy
Solar capacity
175 GW
Wind capacity
150 GW
Hydroelectric
80 GW
Biomass
13 GW
Renewable share
23%
Capacity growth
+12% YoY
Investment
$95B/yr
Main projects
TX, CA solar/wind
Companies
NextEra, Avangrid
Grid integration risk
Moderate
Nuclear Energy
Capacity
95 GW
Share of generation
18%
Active reactors
93
Planned reactors
2 + SMR pilots
Retirement schedule
Limited near-term
Main operator
Constellation
Strategic role
Baseload low-carbon
Main risk
Aging fleet

Energy Infrastructure

Pipelines
3.0 M km
Refineries
129
LNG terminals
8 export
Power plants
11,000+
Transmission
240k miles HV
Storage
120 bcm gas, 365 Mbbl oil
Import terminals
5 LNG import
Export terminals
8 LNG export
Bottleneck
Interregional transmission

Energy Companies

Leading firms across the energy value chain. Mock data — links use existing Companies system.

CompanyTickerRoleOutputImportanceGovernmentRisk
ExxonMobilXOMIntegrated oil & gas3.8 Mboe/dStrategic—ModerateOpen company
ChevronCVXIntegrated oil & gas3.1 Mboe/dStrategic—ModerateCompanies
NextEra EnergyNEERenewables & utility58 GWStrategic—LowCompanies
Cheniere EnergyLNGLNG export45 mtpaStrategic—ModerateCompanies
ConstellationCEGNuclear & power33 GWStrategic—LowCompanies

Energy and the Economy

Observed Data and AI-Assisted Assessment shown side-by-side.

AreaObserved DataAI-Assisted Assessment
InflationEnergy CPI contribution easingLower gas prices reduce headline pressure
CurrencyLimited direct effectStrong export position supports USD on shocks
Trade BalanceEnergy trade surplus expandingLNG exports widen surplus
Government RevenueRoyalty receipts steadyStable upstream activity
Public SpendingClean-energy incentives risingIRA-style support continues
Industrial CompetitivenessLow gas prices vs peersPetrochemical advantage
Household SpendingLower fuel pricesMarginal positive for consumers
Transportation CostsDiesel easingModest logistics relief
Company MarginsMixed by segmentUpstream squeezed, midstream firm
Country RiskLow energy-driven riskEnergy self-sufficiency a buffer

Energy Risk Profile

Import dependency
Very Low
Score 18Trend ▼
Driver: Domestic production
Stabilizer: Reserves
Confidence High · Policy
Supplier concentration
Low
Score 22Trend ■
Driver: Diverse basins
Stabilizer: —
Confidence High · —
Price volatility
Moderate
Score 55Trend ▼
Driver: Global oil cycle
Stabilizer: SPR
Confidence Medium · OPEC+
Infrastructure
Moderate
Score 48Trend ■
Driver: Aging grid
Stabilizer: Investment
Confidence Medium · Permitting
Grid reliability
Moderate
Score 52Trend ▼
Driver: Extreme weather
Stabilizer: Hardening
Confidence Medium · Climate
Geopolitical
Low
Score 30Trend ■
Driver: Limited import reliance
Stabilizer: Allies
Confidence High · —
Transition
Moderate
Score 45Trend ▼
Driver: Stranded asset risk
Stabilizer: Diversification
Confidence Medium · Policy
Environmental policy
Moderate
Score 38Trend ■
Driver: EPA rules
Stabilizer: Compliance capex
Confidence Medium · Elections
Storage
Low
Score 35Trend ▼
Driver: Battery growth
Stabilizer: Investment
Confidence Medium · —
Fiscal dependency
Low
Score 20Trend ■
Driver: Limited reliance
Stabilizer: Diverse tax base
Confidence High · —

Energy Opportunities

Not guaranteed outcomes — directional, mock data.

Renewable expansion
Largest pipeline of solar projects globally.
Grid modernization
Transmission build to unlock interregional flows.
Energy storage
Utility battery deployment accelerating.
Natural gas development
LNG export capacity rising to 200+ mtpa.
Nuclear investment
SMR pilots and license renewals.
Energy efficiency
Building codes and appliance standards.
Hydrogen
Hub program funding clusters.
Electric vehicles
Charging network build-out.
Export infrastructure
Gulf Coast LNG and chemicals.
Industrial electrification
Process heat pilots.

Energy Intelligence Events

Major Gulf Coast LNG project FID
2025-06-12 · Investment
Verified Facts (Mock)
  • Mock $11B project
  • Phase 1 capacity 12 mtpa
Observed Market Reaction: TTF and JKM mock prices eased on supply outlook.
AI-Assisted Assessment

Reinforces U.S. position as marginal LNG supplier through end-decade.

Confidence: Medium (64) · Construction timeline
Currency: Neutral USD
Inflation: Slightly disinflationary medium-term
Trade: Surplus expanding 2027+
Fiscal: Royalty uplift
Sector: Midstream positive
Company: EPC contractors
Country risk: Improving
Open analysis
DOE strategic reserve refill tranche
2025-05-04 · Reserves
Verified Facts (Mock)
  • Mock 5 Mbbl purchase
Observed Market Reaction: WTI mock +1.2% on announcement.
AI-Assisted Assessment

Modest demand-side support; preserves optionality.

Confidence: Medium (64) · Refill pace
Currency: Neutral
Inflation: Neutral
Trade: Marginal
Fiscal: Modest outlay
Sector: Upstream
Company: Producers
Country risk: Stable
Open analysis

Energy Timeline (12 months)

  1. 2024-07
    Policy
    Clean-energy permitting reform proposals.
  2. 2024-09
    Production
    Permian output above 6.3 Mb/d.
  3. 2024-11
    Infrastructure
    Mountain Valley pipeline online.
  4. 2025-01
    Investment
    $10B grid interconnection package.
  5. 2025-02
    Renewables
    Solar capacity passes 170 GW.
  6. 2025-03
    Nuclear
    SMR design certification advanced.
  7. 2025-04
    LNG
    Pause on export approvals lifted.
  8. 2025-05
    Reserves
    SPR refill tranche awarded.
  9. 2025-06
    Investment
    Gulf Coast LNG FID.

What to Watch

Next FERC capacity ruling
2025-07-20
Affects gas-fired plant economics.
OPEC+ meeting
2025-07-06
Production policy decision.
EIA Short-Term Outlook
2025-07-09
Demand/supply revisions.
Hurricane season
2025-08
Gulf production risk.
Permitting bill vote
2025-09
Transmission impact.

Energy Scenarios

Scenario Analysis — Not an Official Forecast.

Base Case
Trigger: Stable global growth
Price: WTI $70–80
Inflation: Neutral
Currency: Neutral USD
Trade: Surplus stable
Fiscal: Stable
Sector: Mixed
Company: Solid margins
Horizon 12m · Confidence Medium · Geopolitics
Positive Scenario
Trigger: Successful permitting reform
Price: Lower power prices
Inflation: Disinflationary
Currency: Neutral
Trade: Surplus widens
Fiscal: Improves
Sector: Renewables, midstream
Company: NextEra, Cheniere
Horizon 12–24m · Confidence Medium · Permitting
Negative Scenario
Trigger: Severe hurricane season + Mideast shock
Price: WTI >$110
Inflation: Higher CPI
Currency: USD haven bid
Trade: Surplus narrows
Fiscal: Mixed
Sector: Downstream pressure
Company: Refiners squeezed
Horizon 6–12m · Confidence Medium · Weather, geopolitics
Mock data for MVP. Not investment, environmental, or engineering advice.
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