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Currency Profile · Free Float · Prototype

🇺🇸 US Dollar (USD)

United States · Central bank: Federal Reserve · Symbol: $

Risk: Very Low· 12/100
Issuing Economy — Live DataWorld Bank · IMF · OECD
Current Account / GDP
-3.6%
2028 · imf
FX Reserves
$1385.4B
2025 · world_bank
GDP Growth
+2.1%
2028 · imf
CPI Inflation
2.2%
2028 · imf

Exchange Rate Overview Prototype — FX feed not connected

USD Basket Strength Index
104.80
+0.42%Today (Mock)
5Y range: 89.4 – 114.7
Volatility: Moderate
1D
+0.42%
1W
+0.85%
1M
+1.30%
YTD
+2.10%
1Y
+3.85%
5Y range
89.4 – 114.7

Currency Chart

1D1W1M3MYTD1Y5Y
Mock illustrative series. Not investment advice.

Main Currency Drivers

Interest-rate differential
Wide vs G10
Front-end yields anchor USD.
Inflation
2.7% PCE
Sticky services component delays cuts.
Trade balance
Persistent deficit
Structurally weighs over the long run.
Capital flows
Strong inflows
Treasuries demand and equity inflows.
Commodity exposure
Net importer
USD invoicing dominates global commodities.
Political risk
Elevated
Election cycle adds episodic volatility.
Central-bank credibility
High
Independent Fed with clear mandate.
Foreign reserves (others)
USD share ~58%
USD remains primary reserve currency.

Central Bank Policy

Open central bank
Current Rate
5.25%–5.50%
Previous
5.25%–5.50%
Last Decision
Held federal funds range steady
Next Meeting
In ~18 days
Inflation Target
2.0% PCE
Current Inflation
2.7%
Stance
On Hold
Guidance
Data-dependent; cut path linked to disinflation progress.

Reserve Position

FX Reserves
$245B
Months of Imports
~0.7 months
Reserve Trend
Stable
External Debt
n/a (reserve currency)
Current Account
-3.0% of GDP
Reserve Adequacy
Very High (reserve issuer)

Trade Exposure

Main Export Currencies
USDEURCADMXN
Main Import Currencies
USDCNYEURMXN
Main Trade Partners
ChinaCanadaMexicoEuro AreaJapan
Commodity sensitivity: Limited; net energy exporter post-shale.
Currency exposure by sector
  • Technology: USD bills global software/cloud revenue.
  • Industrials: Strong USD weighs on export competitiveness.
  • Energy: USD pricing supports producer margins.

Market Reaction · Economic Intelligence Event

Federal Reserve policy decision
Open analysis
Currency reaction
USD +0.20% (DXY proxy)
Bond reaction
10Y Treasury +3 bp
Equity reaction
S&P 500 -0.10%
Main affected sectors: Banks · Tech · Rate-sensitive Utilities
Confidence: High

Historical Currency Trend (12 months)

  1. Fed pauses at 5.25–5.50%
    -11M · Rate Decision
    Impact: USD strengthens 1.2%
  2. CPI cooler than expected
    -9M · Inflation Surprise
    Impact: USD -0.6%
  3. Election uncertainty rises
    -7M · Political Event
    Impact: USD +0.4%
  4. Fed signals patience on cuts
    -5M · Rate Decision
    Impact: USD +0.8%
  5. Core services sticky
    -3M · Inflation Surprise
    Impact: USD +0.5%
  6. Trade-deficit widens
    -1M · Trade Shock
    Impact: USD -0.3%

AI-Assisted Currency Assessment

AI-Assisted · Not Investment Advice
Main positive driver
Yield advantage and reserve-currency demand.
Main negative driver
Twin deficits and political-cycle uncertainty.
Main upcoming event
Next FOMC decision and updated dot plot.
Main risk
Faster disinflation triggering deeper cuts.
Main uncertainty
Election-driven trade-policy direction.
Confidence
Moderate