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Asia-Pacific · Emerging

India — Country Risk

Moderate · 44/100 ImprovingConfidence: HighS&P: BBB-Prototype profile
Overall risk
44/100
Higher score = higher risk
Mock Data — illustrative. Platform Risk Score is not an official credit rating.
Live Macro FundamentalsWorld Bank · IMF · OECD
Current Account / GDP
-1.5%
2028 · imf
Fiscal Balance / GDP
-7.1%
2028 · imf
GDP Growth
+6.5%
2028 · imf
Govt Debt / GDP
81.7%
2028 · imf
CPI Inflation
4.0%
2028 · imf
Unemployment
4.9%
2028 · imf
AI-Assisted Risk Assessment

Country Risk Brief

India's overall risk sits in the Moderate band and is improving. Strong nominal growth, deep local-currency debt markets and ample FX reserves anchor the sovereign profile. Fiscal risk remains the main soft spot, with the deficit narrowing only gradually. The most important recent change is a positive ratings outlook revision against the backdrop of disinflation and continued capex push.

Main driver: Elevated public debt and persistent primary deficitStabilizing: Strong nominal growth and credible inflation-targeting frameworkMain uncertainty: Speed of fiscal consolidation and oil-price pass-through.

Risk Score Breakdown

12 dimensions · 0–100
Fiscal Risk58/100 · Elevated
Sovereign Debt Risk46/100 · Moderate
Currency Risk40/100 · Moderate
Political Risk38/100 · Moderate
Institutional Risk46/100 · Moderate
Banking-System Risk34/100 · Low
External Financing Risk36/100 · Moderate
Regulatory Risk50/100 · Elevated
Social Stability Risk44/100 · Moderate
Commodity Exposure Risk54/100 · Elevated
Trade Dependency Risk40/100 · Moderate
Geopolitical Risk50/100 · Elevated
Risk dimension
Fiscal Risk
Improving
58/100
Elevated
Main driver: Subsidies and capex push deficit wide
Stabilizing factor: Buoyant tax revenues from formalization
Supporting indicators
  • Deficit / GDP-5.6%
  • Debt / GDP82%
  • Revenue Growth+11% YoY
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Sovereign Debt Risk
Improving
46/100
Moderate
Main driver: Long duration but rising stock
Stabilizing factor: Predominantly local-currency debt with deep domestic base
Supporting indicators
  • LC Debt Share95%
  • Avg Maturity12 yrs
  • 10Y G-Sec7.10%
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Currency Risk
Improving
40/100
Moderate
Main driver: Oil-import dependence
Stabilizing factor: Adequate reserves and managed-float framework
Supporting indicators
  • INR / USD83.4
  • Reserves$655B
  • Import Cover10.5 months
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Political Risk
Stable
38/100
Moderate
Main driver: Coalition dynamics post-election
Stabilizing factor: Stable institutional framework
Supporting indicators
  • Policy ContinuityHigh
  • Election CycleRecent
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Institutional Risk
Stable
46/100
Moderate
Main driver: Bureaucratic and judicial delays
Stabilizing factor: Independent RBI; improving digital governance
Supporting indicators
  • Rule of Law (WGI)0.1
  • Regulatory Quality0.0
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Banking-System Risk
Improving
34/100
Low
Main driver: Unsecured retail growth
Stabilizing factor: NPLs at multi-year lows and recapitalized PSBs
Supporting indicators
  • GNPA2.8%
  • CET113.7%
  • Credit Growth+15% YoY
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
External Financing Risk
Improving
36/100
Moderate
Main driver: Energy and gold imports
Stabilizing factor: Robust services exports and remittances
Supporting indicators
  • Current Account-1.0% of GDP
  • Services Exports+12% YoY
  • Remittances$120B
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Regulatory Risk
Stable
50/100
Elevated
Main driver: Tax disputes and regulatory churn
Stabilizing factor: Digital public infrastructure (UPI, Aadhaar)
Supporting indicators
  • Doing-Business TrendImproving
  • Tax LitigationElevated
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Social Stability Risk
Stable
44/100
Moderate
Main driver: Income inequality and informal labor
Stabilizing factor: Expanding middle class and welfare delivery
Supporting indicators
  • Unemployment7.6%
  • Formal Sector ShareRising
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Commodity Exposure Risk
Improving
54/100
Elevated
Main driver: Crude oil import dependence
Stabilizing factor: Strategic reserves and diversified sourcing
Supporting indicators
  • Oil Import Dependence~85%
  • Strategic Reserve~10 days
Confidence: HighUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Trade Dependency Risk
Stable
40/100
Moderate
Main driver: Exposure to Western tech-services demand
Stabilizing factor: Diversified merchandise mix and FTAs
Supporting indicators
  • Trade / GDP46%
  • Top Partner ShareUS 18%
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Risk dimension
Geopolitical Risk
Stable
50/100
Elevated
Main driver: China border and Indo-Pacific tensions
Stabilizing factor: Strategic autonomy and Quad engagement
Supporting indicators
  • Defense / GDP2.4%
  • Quad EngagementActive
Confidence: MediumUpdated Jun 29, 2026
Verified Indicator

Fiscal Risk

Government Debt / GDP
82%
Budget Balance
-5.6% of GDP
Interest Expense
5.4% of GDP
Avg Debt Maturity
12 years
Revenue Stability
Improving (GST)
Primary Balance
-1.4% of GDP
Fiscal Policy Direction
Consolidation glide path
Main Fiscal Concern
Interest burden and subsidies
Main Fiscal Strength
Strong nominal-GDP growth
Verified Indicator

Sovereign Debt Risk

Local-Currency Debt
₹178 lakh crore
Foreign-Currency Debt
Low (~5%)
Debt-Service Burden
Manageable (deep LCY base)
Refinancing Risk
Low
Bond-Yield Trend
10Y G-Sec ~7.10%
Credit Rating
BBB- (S&P)
Rating Outlook
Positive
Recent Rating Action
Outlook upgrade, Mar 2026 (mock)
Verified Indicator

Currency Risk

Currency Volatility
4.1% (1m)
Reserve Adequacy
Comfortable
Current-Account Balance
-1.0% of GDP
External Debt
19% of GDP
Import Coverage
10.5 months
Capital-Flow Sensitivity
Moderate
Currency Regime
Managed Float
Central-Bank Credibility
High
Open currency profile →
Verified Indicator

Political Risk

Government Stability
Stable
Election Risk
Low (post-election)
Policy Continuity
High
Social Tension
Moderate
Protest Risk
Low–Moderate
Corruption Risk
Moderate
Geopolitical Exposure
Moderate
Institutional Strength
High
Verified Indicator

Banking-System Risk

Capital Adequacy
CET1 13.7%
Non-Performing Loans
2.8% GNPA
Liquidity
Adequate
Credit Growth
+15% YoY
Property-Market Exposure
Moderate
Foreign-Currency Lending
Low
Government Support Capacity
High
Systemic Risk
Low–Moderate
Verified Indicator

External Risk

Current-Account Balance
-1.0% of GDP
Trade Balance
-7.0% of GDP
Foreign Reserves
$655B
External Debt
19% of GDP
Foreign Investment Flows
Net positive (FPI + FDI)
Commodity Dependence
Crude oil
Trade-Partner Concentration
Diversified
Global Funding Sensitivity
Moderate
Verified Indicator

Regulatory & Institutional Risk

Regulatory Predictability
Improving
Rule of Law
Moderate
Contract Enforcement
Improving
Policy Transparency
Improving
Business Environment
Mid-table, rising
Capital Controls
Calibrated
Foreign Ownership Restrictions
Sector-specific
Institutional Credibility
High (RBI)
Credit Ratings (Official)
S&PBBB-Outlook: PositiveOutlook upgrade · Mar 18, 2026
Moody'sBaa3Outlook: StableAffirmation · Feb 09, 2026
FitchBBB-Outlook: StableAffirmation · May 02, 2026

Official Rating — separate from the Platform Risk Score above.

Risk Trend — Last 12 Months

  1. RBI policy decision
    Jun 22, 2026
    Dimension: Currency Risk · 44 40 (-4)
    Hold + hawkish guidance supports INR.
    Open Analysis →
  2. CPI eases to 4.8%
    Jun 12, 2026
    Dimension: Fiscal Risk · 60 58 (-2)
    Lower inflation reduces subsidy pressure.
    Open Analysis →
  3. S&P outlook upgrade to Positive
    Mar 18, 2026
    Dimension: Sovereign Debt Risk · 50 46 (-4)
    Improved fiscal trajectory and growth momentum.
  4. Union Budget — consolidation maintained
    Feb 02, 2026
    Dimension: Fiscal Risk · 62 60 (-2)
    Capex-led growth with deficit glide path.

Risk Events — Linked Intelligence Prototype examples

India·Inflation ReleasePrototypeHigh

India CPI eases to 4.8% YoY on favorable food base

Jun 12, 2026 · 12:00 UTC
Fact (example)
CPI YoY:4.8%prev 5.1%· MoSPI

Headline CPI back inside RBI's tolerance band as vegetable prices normalize; core stable around 3.2%.

AI Assessment (example)
Currency
Mixed
Markets
Positive
Country risk
Slightly Lower Risk
Market Reaction
INR: FlatNIFTY 50: +0.2%
Confidence: 78% · High·2 sources·Updated Jun 27, 2026 · 08:00 UTCOpen Analysis
India·Monetary PolicyPrototypeHigh

RBI holds repo at 6.50%; tone signals durable disinflation

Jun 7, 2026 · 06:30 UTC
Fact (example)
Repo Rate:6.50%prev 6.50%· Reserve Bank of India

MPC retains a neutral stance with one dissent voting for a cut; growth forecast nudged to 7.3%.

AI Assessment (example)
Currency
Mixed
Markets
Positive
Country risk
No Material Change
Market Reaction
INR: FlatNIFTY 50: +0.4%
Confidence: 86% · High·2 sources·Updated Jun 27, 2026 · 11:00 UTCOpen Analysis

Risk Scenarios — Scenario Analysis — Not a Forecast

Base Case
Moderate · 44/100

Disinflation holds; growth near 7%; deficit narrows gradually.

Trigger: Stable oil; capex execution on plan.
Affected: Fiscal Risk, Currency Risk
Horizon: 12 months
Confidence: Medium
Main uncertainty: Oil prices.
Positive Scenario
Moderate · 38/100

Index-inclusion inflows accelerate; rating upgrade follows.

Trigger: Stable global rates; disinflation continues.
Affected: Sovereign Debt Risk, External Financing Risk
Horizon: 12 months
Confidence: Medium
Main uncertainty: External flows sustainability.
Negative Scenario
Elevated · 52/100

Oil shock and weaker global growth strain external balance.

Trigger: Brent > $110; risk-off in EM.
Affected: Currency Risk, External Financing Risk, Fiscal Risk
Horizon: 12 months
Confidence: Low
Main uncertainty: Geopolitical tail risk.

What to Watch

  • Next RBI Meeting — Policy stance update.Aug 7, 2026
  • CPI Release — Food and core inflation.Jul 12, 2026
  • GDP Print — Q1 FY27 growth.Aug 31, 2026
  • Rating Review — Possible S&P action after outlook upgrade.H2 2026

Risk Comparison

Compare India with another country across overall, fiscal, political, currency, debt, banking, external and regulatory risk.

Open Compare
Platform Risk Score is a structured internal view — not a credit rating. Methodology

Source: RBI, MoSPI, Ministry of Finance · Mock Data