Prototype · Metals
Iron Ore (62% Fe CFR China)
Price $105/t · Volatility High · Supply risk Moderate · Demand Stable
Updated 2025-06-28
Price
$105/t
1D
-0.5%
1M
-3%
YTD
-12%
Volatility
High
Supply risk
Moderate
Commodity Brief
AI-Assisted Commodity Assessment — separated from verified data.
Iron ore eased on softer Chinese steel output and improving Brazil supply. Port stocks elevated. Risks balanced: stimulus could lift prices, while property weakness drags.
Confidence: Medium (62) · Generated 2025-06-28
Evidence: Chinese steel output; Brazil exports · Uncertainty: China stimulus
Price Performance
High: $135 (Jan)
Low: $103 (Jun)
Avg: $115
Volatility: High
Trend: Downtrend
Supply
Global production
1,580 Mt
Top producers
Australia, Brazil, China, India
Concentration
Top-3 = 70%
Major companies
Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP, FMG
Spare capacity
Some in Brazil
Inventories
Chinese ports ~135 Mt
Disruptions
Brazil rainfall, Aussie weather
Infrastructure risk
Rail/port
Demand
Global consumption
1,560 Mt
Top consumers
China (60%), India, EU
Sectors
Steel for construction, autos, machinery
Demand growth
-1%
Substitution
Scrap-based EAF
Seasonal
Spring construction
Transition relevance
Moderate (green steel)
Trade Flows
Top exporters
Australia, Brazil
Top importers
China, Japan, South Korea
Routes
Pacific bulk
Pricing currency
USD
Shipping
Capesize bulk carriers
Trade restrictions
Limited
Sanctions exposure
Low
Country Exposure
Australia
Major Exporter~57% of seaborne
China
Major Importer70% of imports
Sector Exposure
MiningRevenue
Producer margins
ManufacturingCost
Steel feedstock
ConstructionCost
Rebar, beams
AutomotiveCost
Sheet steel
EnergyCost
Pipelines
Company Exposure
Mock data — uses the existing Companies & Sectors system.
| Company | Country | Relationship | Revenue Exposure | Cost Exposure | Importance | Risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vale | Brazil | Largest exporter | Very High | Low | Strategic | Moderate | Companies |
| Rio Tinto | Australia | Major producer | Very High | Low | Strategic | Low | Companies |
| BHP | Australia | Major producer | Very High | Low | Strategic | Low | Companies |
| Fortescue | Australia | Major producer | Very High | Low | Strategic | Moderate | Companies |
Commodity Intelligence Events
China port inventory build
2025-06-15 · Inventory report
- Stocks +5 Mt WoW
Observed Market Reaction: Ore -2%.
AI-Assisted Assessment
Reflects soft mill demand and ample arrivals.
Confidence: High (80) · Mill restocking
Economic Impact
Inflation
Limited direct CPI
Currency
AUD, BRL sensitive
Trade Balance
Major Australia/Brazil surplus driver
Government Revenue
Royalties material
Fiscal Balance
Material in Australia, Brazil
Consumer Spending
Indirect via construction
Industrial Costs
Steel-intensive sectors
Sector Profitability
Miners vs steelmakers
Company Margins
Producers benefit at high prices
Country Risk
Material to Australia, Brazil terms of trade
Commodity Risk Profile
Supply concentration
HighAus/Brazil duopoly
Geopolitical
LowStable producers
Transportation
LowBulk shipping
Inventory
ModerateChinese ports high
Weather
ModerateCyclones, rains
Regulation
ModerateRoyalty regimes
Substitution
ModerateScrap, EAF
Demand
ModerateChina property
Currency
LowUSD pricing
Environmental policy
ModerateGreen steel
Commodity Scenarios
Scenario Analysis — Not a Price Forecast.
Base Case
Trigger: Stable Chinese steel ~1.0 Bt
Price direction: $95–115
Countries: Australia, Brazil, China
Sectors: Mining
Companies: Vale, Rio
Inflation: Neutral
Currency: AUD, BRL stable
Trade: Stable surpluses
Horizon 12m · Confidence Medium · China property
Supply Shock Scenario
Trigger: Cyclone halts Pilbara exports
Price direction: +25%
Countries: China
Sectors: Steel
Companies: Mills
Inflation: Modest
Currency: AUD up briefly
Trade: Disrupted shipments
Horizon 1–3m · Confidence Medium · Storm scale
Demand Shock Scenario
Trigger: Chinese property deepens
Price direction: -30%
Countries: Aus, Brazil
Sectors: Mining
Companies: Vale
Inflation: Disinflationary
Currency: BRL, AUD weak
Trade: Surplus narrows
Horizon 12m · Confidence Medium · Stimulus
Mock data for MVP. Not trading, investment, engineering or legal advice.