Prototype · Metals
Gold
Price $2,340/oz · Volatility Moderate · Supply risk Low · Demand Rising
Updated 2025-06-28
Price
$2,340/oz
1D
+0.4%
1M
+1.8%
YTD
+12.5%
Volatility
Moderate
Supply risk
Low
Commodity Brief
AI-Assisted Commodity Assessment — separated from verified data.
Gold near record highs on persistent central bank buying, geopolitical risk premium and rate-cut expectations. ETF flows turned positive after 18 months of outflows. Main risk is a sharp rebound in real yields.
Confidence: High (80) · Generated 2025-06-28
Evidence: Central bank reserves data; ETF flows · Uncertainty: Real rate trajectory
Price Performance
High: $2,420 (May)
Low: $2,020 (Feb)
Avg: $2,210
Volatility: Moderate
Trend: Uptrend
Supply
Global production
3,650 t/yr
Top producers
China, Australia, Russia
Concentration
Top-5 = 40%
Major companies
Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle
Spare capacity
Limited (mine lead times)
Inventories
Above-ground ~210k t
Disruptions
Limited
Infrastructure risk
Country-specific
Demand
Global consumption
4,500 t
Top consumers
Central banks, India, China
Sectors
Jewelry, Investment, CB, Tech
Demand growth
+3%
Substitution
Limited
Seasonal
Indian wedding season
Transition relevance
Low
Trade Flows
Top exporters
Switzerland (refining), UAE, UK
Top importers
India, China, Turkey
Routes
Air freight (high value)
Pricing currency
USD
Shipping
Air cargo
Trade restrictions
India import duties
Sanctions exposure
Russian gold restrictions
Country Exposure
China
Major ExporterLargest producer
Turkey
Currency SensitivityHedge against TRY
Sector Exposure
MiningRevenue
Producer margins
FinancialsBoth
Reserves and ETFs
ConsumerCost
Jewelry
TechnologyCost
Electronics
Company Exposure
Mock data — uses the existing Companies & Sectors system.
Commodity Intelligence Events
Central bank reserves +35 t in May
2025-06-08 · Inventory report
- China, Poland, Türkiye buyers
Observed Market Reaction: Gold +0.8%.
AI-Assisted Assessment
Sustains structural bid; diversification away from USD continues.
Confidence: High (80) · Pace of buying
Economic Impact
Inflation
Gold typically a hedge during inflation surprises
Currency
Inverse to USD generally
Trade Balance
India imports a meaningful CAD component
Government Revenue
Royalties in producing countries
Fiscal Balance
Small direct impact
Consumer Spending
Jewelry demand
Industrial Costs
Limited
Sector Profitability
Miners and refiners
Company Margins
AISC vs price spread
Country Risk
Reserves diversification
Commodity Risk Profile
Supply concentration
LowDiverse producers
Geopolitical
ModerateCountry-specific mine risk
Transportation
LowLow volume air freight
Inventory
LowAbove-ground stocks
Weather
LowLimited
Regulation
LowMining permits
Substitution
LowLimited substitutes
Demand
LowStable structural
Currency
ModerateUSD inverse
Environmental policy
LowMining standards
Commodity Scenarios
Scenario Analysis — Not a Price Forecast.
Base Case
Trigger: Gradual rate cuts, CB buying
Price direction: $2,250–2,500
Countries: India, China
Sectors: Mining
Companies: Newmont
Inflation: Neutral
Currency: USD soft
Trade: Stable
Horizon 12m · Confidence Medium · Real rates
Supply Shock Scenario
Trigger: Major mine disruption
Price direction: +5–10%
Countries: Producers
Sectors: Mining
Companies: Specific miners
Inflation: Neutral
Currency: Limited
Trade: Neutral
Horizon 6m · Confidence Low · Scale
Demand Shock Scenario
Trigger: Sharp risk-off / CB acceleration
Price direction: +20%
Countries: Central banks
Sectors: Financials
Companies: Miners
Inflation: Neutral
Currency: USD weak
Trade: Stable
Horizon 12m · Confidence Medium · Conflict
Mock data for MVP. Not trading, investment, engineering or legal advice.