Prototype · Energy

Crude Oil (Brent)

Price $78.40/bbl · Volatility High · Supply risk Elevated · Demand Stable

Prototype profile

Live Benchmark Price

$71.59

$/bbl (Brent)

+2.0% vs prior period

2026-06-29 · fred

Price

$78.40/bbl

+0.6%

-2.3%

YTD

+3.5%

Volatility

High

Supply risk

Elevated

Commodity Brief

AI-Assisted Commodity Assessment — separated from verified data.

Brent trades in a $75–85 range as OPEC+ production discipline offsets softer Chinese demand. Geopolitical premium remains embedded due to MENA tensions. Inventories are tight in OECD countries. Main upcoming catalyst is the next OPEC+ meeting.

Confidence: Medium (62) · Generated 2025-06-28

Evidence: OPEC+ quota guidance; OECD stock levels · Uncertainty: Mideast conflict escalation

Price Performance

High: $86 (Apr)

Low: $73 (Feb)

Avg: $79.50

Volatility: High

Trend: Range-bound

Supply

Global production

102.4 Mb/d

OPEC+ share

40%

Producers

US, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada

Concentration

Moderate

Companies

Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, Shell, BP

Spare capacity

5 Mb/d (mostly OPEC+)

Inventories

OECD ~2,750 Mbbl

Supply disruptions

Red Sea, Libya

Infrastructure risk

Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb

Demand

Global consumption

102.0 Mb/d

Top consumers

US, China, India, EU

Top sectors

Transport, Petrochemicals, Industry

Demand growth

+0.9% YoY

Substitution

EV ramp, efficiency

Seasonal

Summer driving, winter heating

Transition relevance

High (peak demand debate)

Trade Flows

Top exporters

Saudi Arabia, Russia, US, UAE

Top importers

China, India, EU, Japan

Routes

Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Malacca

Pricing currency

USD

Shipping

VLCC fleet ~880 vessels

Trade restrictions

Russian price cap, Iran sanctions

Sanctions exposure

High

Country Exposure

Saudi Arabia

Major Exporter

Swing producer

United States

Major Exporter

Largest producer

Country profile

Russia

Major Exporter

Subject to price cap

China

Major Importer

~11 Mb/d imports

India

Major Importer

85% import dependent

Country profile

Brazil

Major Exporter

Pre-salt growth

Country profile

Nigeria

Fiscal Dependence

Oil = 50% revenue

Japan

Inflation Exposure

100% import

Turkey

Currency Sensitivity

TRY ↔ crude

Sector Exposure

EnergyRevenue

Upstream margins

TransportationCost

Diesel and jet fuel

ManufacturingCost

Petrochemical feedstock

AgricultureCost

Fertilizer and fuel

ConstructionCost

Bitumen and fuel

TechnologyCost

Limited direct exposure

AutomotiveBoth

ICE demand cycle

UtilitiesCost

Oil-fired peaking

ConsumerCost

Retail fuel pass-through

MiningCost

Diesel-heavy operations

Company Exposure

Mock data — uses the existing Companies & Sectors system.

Company	Country	Relationship	Revenue Exposure	Cost Exposure	Importance	Risk
Saudi Aramco	Saudi Arabia	Largest producer	Very High	Low	Strategic	Moderate	Companies
ExxonMobil	United States	Integrated major	High	Low	Strategic	Moderate	Open company
Petrobras	Brazil	Pre-salt producer	Very High	Low	Strategic	Moderate	Open company
Reliance Industries	India	Refining and exports	High	High	Strategic	Moderate	Open company
TotalEnergies	France	Integrated major	High	Low	Strategic	Moderate	Companies

Commodity Intelligence Events

OPEC+ extends voluntary cuts

2025-06-22 · Production decision

Mock 2.2 Mb/d cuts extended Q3

Observed Market Reaction: Brent +1.5% on announcement.

AI-Assisted Assessment

Maintains price floor near $75. Compliance is the risk.

Confidence: Medium (62) · Cheating risk

Open analysis

Red Sea shipping rerouting deepens

2025-06-05 · Supply disruption

~15% Suez transit decline

Observed Market Reaction: Tanker rates up; Brent freight premium +$1.

AI-Assisted Assessment

Adds geopolitical premium but volumes still flow.

Confidence: Medium (62) · Conflict escalation

Open analysis

Economic Impact

Inflation

Each +$10 crude ≈ +20 bps global CPI

Currency

Petro-currencies benefit (NOK, CAD, BRL)

Trade Balance

Importers' deficits widen

Government Revenue

Royalties and excise rise

Fiscal Balance

Mixed: exporters improve, importers strain

Consumer Spending

Retail fuel pass-through

Industrial Costs

Petrochem and logistics

Sector Profitability

Upstream + refining differ

Company Margins

Integrated majors hedged

Country Risk

Affects oil-importing emerging markets

Commodity Risk Profile

Supply concentration

Elevated

OPEC+ share

Geopolitical

High

Mideast, Russia

Transportation

Elevated

Chokepoint exposure

Inventory

Moderate

Tight OECD stocks

Weather

Moderate

Hurricane season

Regulation

Moderate

Carbon policy

Substitution

Moderate

EV ramp

Demand

Moderate

China growth

Currency

Low

USD pricing

Environmental policy

Moderate

Net-zero pledges

Commodity Scenarios

Scenario Analysis — Not a Price Forecast.

Base Case

Trigger: OPEC+ discipline, modest China demand

Price direction: $75–85

Countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, US

Sectors: Energy

Companies: Aramco, Exxon

Inflation: Neutral

Currency: USD stable

Trade: Stable

Horizon 12m · Confidence Medium · Compliance

Supply Shock Scenario

Trigger: Mideast escalation closes Hormuz

Price direction: +30–50%

Countries: Japan, India, EU

Sectors: Refiners, Transport

Companies: Importer NOCs

Inflation: Sharp rise

Currency: USD haven bid

Trade: Importers' deficits widen

Horizon 6m · Confidence Medium · Duration

Demand Shock Scenario

Trigger: Global growth slowdown

Price direction: -25%

Countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Nigeria

Sectors: Upstream

Companies: Producers

Inflation: Disinflationary

Currency: Petro-FX weak

Trade: Exporters strained

Horizon 12m · Confidence Medium · China growth

Mock data for MVP. Not trading, investment, engineering or legal advice.

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